LAY Betting is becoming the latest craze in the betting world, so another article about it will not be out of place.
Briefly, a Lay bet is to bet that something will not happen. For example, Instead of betting that a horse will win a horse race, you should bet that it will not win.
Never mind for now the details of the history of Lay Betting. It will suffice to know that a British Betting Exchange called Betfair, seriously introduced Lay Betting into the U.K. about the year 2000, and now Betfair is by far the largest Betting Exchange in the world.
So what’s a Betting Exchange ? I knew you would ask. The answer is that they are Gambling Sites on the Internet, where people can place and accept bets, without using a Bookmaker. The bets are on all kinds of competitive subjects, predominately sporting contests, and include Lay bets.
For the sake of simplicity I will use the U.K. horse racing for my examples. ( By the way, if using the internet is inconvenient, it is now possible to also bet over the telephone to some Exchange Sites ).
Anyway, along comes Fred the Punter. He has heard about Lay Betting, and has come to have a look for himself. In just a few minutes he has gone online, and registered with Betfair. He has also opened an account to deposit betting money. Well done Fred.
The first thing Fred learned was that there were no Bookmakers. He was going to bet directly against other people, who would not be identified. To arrange his bet he would be guided by the money staked and the odds available, and these were clearly laid out before him.
Fred found that, amongst others, he had the choice of two types of bets. The first was the usual BACK Bet, and Fred knew how to handle these … He would normally select a horse using his latest system … bet to win … Lose his money … Kick the cat.
The second type of bet was different, and much favoured by the cat …
Fred was advised to do what the Bookmakers do … Bet to lose … Because If you lose … you win.
Sounds simple enough. But what does it mean ?
The horse race will of course normally have only one winner, and the rest of the horses will lose. A Bookie would try to price all the horses so that the total of all the money he collects, from the losing horses, is a lot more than he pays out on the one winning horse. So basically, the Bookie doesn’t care which horse wins or loses.
I’ll have some of that, thinks Fred, planning to Lay all the horses in the next race. But hold on Fred. You couldn’t handle all the changing prices, and the monies bet etc. It would end up a disaster. Just Lay one horse if it is suitable, or maybe two or three if they look real losers.
Fred then immediately goes for his master plan number two, which is to Lay the outsiders on odds of 100/1, because if they were any good said Fred, they would be at lower prices. So they must be losers to have such long odds..
It sounds reasonable, but hold on yet again Fred. You do know that these outsiders do sometimes win. Not very often, and not when you are backing them. But it does happen. You had better make sure that you understand both the profit and the pay out side of Lay bets.
But first I would mention that the Exchange withholds enough money from the Bettors accounts, before a race, to cover any losses. This way Winners know that they will be paid. The Exchange also retains a small commission from net winnings after a race. This income is to finance the Exchange.
Your PROFIT comes from your Opponents who have Backed a horse that you have Layed. If the horse loses, all the money they have risked with you becomes yours.
Your LIABILITY is to have to pay out if the horse wins.
The amount depends on the price of the horse, but remember, you are now in the position of a Bookie. If your opponent has staked £10 with you at say 3/1, you will have to pay out £10 x 3 = £30.
That crash you just heard was Fred hitting the floor, after calculating the Liability of getting a Laybet wrong at 100/1 odds and a £50 stake. Yes, that’s right Fred, you would have to make a £5,000 pay out. That would be something to brag about down the Pub on a Saturday night.
O.K. said Fred, so how do you play this game ?
So I explained as follows. First you need to consider horses at lower prices. For example, if you layed a horse with a £10 stake at 3/1 odds, and another horse at £10 and 30/1 odds, either would win you £10 if their horse lost. But look at the difference in the liability and risk. A £30 risk, or a £300 risk, all for that £10 prize.
On realizing this, the Punters ( and Fred’s one ), immediately want to just Lay the favourites. They forget that they are Laying the better horses, who are more likely to win.
So, what do we do ? Well whatever system you come up with, you must do one thing. You have to find 85% or more correct Lay bets.
It is simple arithmetic. Let us do some sums with £10 bets at 4/1 odds
85 correct Laybets at £10 stakes equals £850 won. Less 15 wrong £10 Laybets at 4/1 equals £600 lost. Net profit £250
BUT only 60 correct Laybets at £10 staked only equals £600 won. Less 40 wrong £10 Laybets at 4/1 equals £1600 lost. Net loss £1000.
Net Loss of £1000, less Net profit of £250, equals £750 lost overall.
So we need most of our Laybets to be correct, for as low odds as we can find, such as:
90 correct Laybets at £10 staked equals £900 won.
Less 10 wrong £10 Lay bets at 2/1 equals £200 lost. £700 won overall.
Fortunately, we do have some very good advantages. For example, we do not have to bet on every race, just the ones that look good for a loser. And even then it is up to us how much we want to wager.
Also, by properly researching the horse’s history, it is quite possible to get 85% correct Laybets, or even better, 90% or more. Which can put you into a situation whereby mathematically you cannot lose
Phew that’s better gasped Fred. I was getting worried with all that losing bit, and I was going to put my hat and coat on and go home and kick the cat.
But how do you find the necessary percentage of correct Laybets ?
That is another story, Fred.
Watch this space.
For More Information On Lay Betting Click Below
The LayRevolution
The never-seen-before technique in this guide is designed to help you start profiting right away! Everything is explained from top to bottom in the guide.
laygenius
Unique system that will show you how to make endless profits,and uses a spreadsheet to do all the work for you!
